Playoff Probabilites — A “Code Blue” Medical Primer

Last month, we used a cooking metaphor to describe the likelihood of each MLB team making, or in most cases, not making the post season.  As we get closer to the end of the regular season, I thought a more apt metaphor was need, a medical condition classification. 

 ”Code Blue” is used in medical parlance to indicate that a patient who has gone into cardiopulmonary arrest.  The picture of the team pushing a crash cart to a coded patient’s room is a good indication that some teams have recently taken a turn for the worst and some others have have gone to the big ball diamond in the sky to answer a casting call for Field of Dreams II.

Here is the medical classifications that we will be using:

• Good (Green) Vital signs are stable and within normal limits. Patient is conscious and comfortable. Indicators are excellent.
• Fair (Blue) Vital signs are stable and within normal limits. Patient is conscious, but may be uncomfortable. Indicators are favorable
• Critical (Red)  Vital signs are unstable and not within normal limits. Patient may be unconscious. Indicators are unfavorable.
• Deceased / DNR – Dr. is looking at watch for ToD. Patient has sheet over head and wires are unplugged. 

 

American League

• Good:  New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers.
• Fair: Minnesota
• Critical: White Sox
• Deceased: Boston, Oakland, Los Angeles, Toronto, Baltimore, Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Seattle

National League

• Good:  Atlanta, Cincinnati
• Fair: Philadelphia
• Critical: SF Giants, San Diego Critical on Life Support*: Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals
• Deceased: Marlins, NY Mets, Nationals, Houston, Milwuakee, Cubs, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona

*A Priest was seen administering Last Rites.

Here is an actual computer simulation of each team’s post-season probabilities.

Books on Baseball likes a robust debate.  Let’s hear what you have to say.