Tuesday, September 21st, 2021

Moneyball: Updated

March 24, 2010 by  
Filed under Statistics and Analysis

Earlier this month, I posted a book review on the best-selling book Moneyball by Michael Lewis.  I recently came across an article from the Sports Journal of the United States Sports Academy that attempts to statistically validate one of Moneyball’s key premises: 

Drafting college prospects has a demonstrably higher chance of success than drafting high school prospects.

Research Abstract

The Moneyball theory illustrated in Lewis (2003) is revolutionizing the way Major League Baseball organizations draft future prospects. However, a dearth of academic statistical research has been found analyzing the reliability of the Moneyball theory. The purpose of this study was to compare the top collegiate and high school drafted baseball player’s professional Moneyball offensive statistics- slugging percentage, on base percentage, and on base plus slugging (OPS) over a four year span. Participants in this study were college (n = 30) and high school (n = 30) professionally drafted baseball players. Results revealed a significant difference between collegiate and high school minor league slugging percentage. The importance of draft selection and future direction of professional baseball is discussed.

The outcome of the research was mixed.  While college perfromance is a statistically significant indicator of a higher Slugging Percentage when compared to HS five-tool players, the increases observed in OBP and OBS were not statistically significant.  Read entire article….

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